BY DAN BEGNOCHE
Buffalo has lost five of six and is also down a key member of its offense, running back Fred Jackson, who's out with a concussion. The Bills will look to C.J. Spiller and Ryan Fitzpatrick to carry the offense. Miami will put its faith in rookie Ryan Tannehill, who's improved greatly since the preseason, and Reggie Bush, who's looking to regain his early-season form.
DECIDING FACTORS:
Spiller time. Buffalo's running back "controversy" has been put on hold for at least one week, and the Bills will put their run game almost exclusively into the hands of the league's most dynamic ball carrier. Spiller's forte has been the big play all season, accounting for a vast majority of the Bills' explosive offense and a big reason the team leads the AFC in yards per carry average (5.3). In his last game against the Dolphins, Spiller went off for 167 total yards and two touchdowns, so look for Miami to stack the box and try to stifle the elusive back.
Third time's the charm. The Bills' defense currently has the worst third-down percentage in the league (47 percent). The squad may have a chance to lower that number this week, however, against a Miami offense that's struggled on third down, particularly on third-and-short situations. Tannehill is at the bottom of the list in terms quarterback conversions on third down, and all three of his interceptions last week came on third down. Stopping opponent's drives has been a big issue for the Bills, and if they can force a few three-and-outs early the offense may have a chance to grab an early lead.
Airing it out. Miami's wide receiver corps was a big question mark coming into the season, as the team faced the loss of Pro Bowler Brandon Marshall and had no other top-tier receiver in sight. Brian Hartline has been impressive thus far, ranking in the top ten in yards, but the 'Phins passing game has struggled where it counts most, on the scoreboard. Miami has only six touchdowns in the air this season, and the offense has been especially hurting in the red zone the last few games. Thursday may be a day of reckoning, however, with a Bills' defense giving up more than 240 yards a game in the air and a 75 percent TD rate in the red zone.
Out cold. Tannehill has been impressive the first half of the season, but Thursday's game will be the rookie's first cold-weather start, a game-changer for many quarterbacks. Tannehill said earlier in the week that he has had some exposure to playing in cold weather in west Texas, Kansas and Iowa, but Buffalo may be a different beast for the young back. The fans and conditions have always been known as the 12th man at Ralph Wilson Stadium, and Tannehill will have a chilly inauguration, with temperatures forecast in the low 30s with a slight wind.
Week 11 AFC East game picks: Dolphins at Bills
Bills to focus on Dolphins' inside passing game
Film review: Bills' air attack vs. Patriots' zone 'D'
Bills wary of Dolphins' blitz-happy defensive backs
Jackson injury simplifies Bills' unsolved RB equation
Graham on bad route: That's why I don't play much
Reggie Bush struggling, Bills may be perfect remedy
Plenty of blame can go to Dolphins' defense, too
Early turnovers take out Fins early in loss to Titans
Two big turnovers spell another Bills loss to Patriots
Spiller time. Buffalo's running back "controversy" has been put on hold for at least one week, and the Bills will put their run game almost exclusively into the hands of the league's most dynamic ball carrier. Spiller's forte has been the big play all season, accounting for a vast majority of the Bills' explosive offense and a big reason the team leads the AFC in yards per carry average (5.3). In his last game against the Dolphins, Spiller went off for 167 total yards and two touchdowns, so look for Miami to stack the box and try to stifle the elusive back.
Third time's the charm. The Bills' defense currently has the worst third-down percentage in the league (47 percent). The squad may have a chance to lower that number this week, however, against a Miami offense that's struggled on third down, particularly on third-and-short situations. Tannehill is at the bottom of the list in terms quarterback conversions on third down, and all three of his interceptions last week came on third down. Stopping opponent's drives has been a big issue for the Bills, and if they can force a few three-and-outs early the offense may have a chance to grab an early lead.
Airing it out. Miami's wide receiver corps was a big question mark coming into the season, as the team faced the loss of Pro Bowler Brandon Marshall and had no other top-tier receiver in sight. Brian Hartline has been impressive thus far, ranking in the top ten in yards, but the 'Phins passing game has struggled where it counts most, on the scoreboard. Miami has only six touchdowns in the air this season, and the offense has been especially hurting in the red zone the last few games. Thursday may be a day of reckoning, however, with a Bills' defense giving up more than 240 yards a game in the air and a 75 percent TD rate in the red zone.
Out cold. Tannehill has been impressive the first half of the season, but Thursday's game will be the rookie's first cold-weather start, a game-changer for many quarterbacks. Tannehill said earlier in the week that he has had some exposure to playing in cold weather in west Texas, Kansas and Iowa, but Buffalo may be a different beast for the young back. The fans and conditions have always been known as the 12th man at Ralph Wilson Stadium, and Tannehill will have a chilly inauguration, with temperatures forecast in the low 30s with a slight wind.
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A week of Bills and Dolphins posts at AFCEastDaily.comWeek 11 AFC East game picks: Dolphins at Bills
Bills to focus on Dolphins' inside passing game
Film review: Bills' air attack vs. Patriots' zone 'D'
Bills wary of Dolphins' blitz-happy defensive backs
Jackson injury simplifies Bills' unsolved RB equation
Graham on bad route: That's why I don't play much
Reggie Bush struggling, Bills may be perfect remedy
Plenty of blame can go to Dolphins' defense, too
Early turnovers take out Fins early in loss to Titans
Two big turnovers spell another Bills loss to Patriots
