AFC East bouts don't get much better than when the New England Patriots and New York Jets square off in the second half of the season. The Patriots are usually rolling, and the Jets are usually desperate.This season is no exception, as Gang Green (4-6) hosts New England (7-3) Thanksgiving night in a last-gasp effort to keep their Wildcard hopes alive. Meanwhile, the Patriots are working toward a first-round bye and homefield advantage in the playoffs.
DECIDING FACTORS:
Third down. Alongside the Buffalo Bills, the Patriots have the worst third-down defense in the NFL, giving up chain-moving plays at an alarming 46 percent. The Jets are third at 43. New York will only stay in the game if Mark Sanchez and the two-headed rushing attack of Shonn Greene and Bilal Powell can take advantage of that on offense, and the defense absolutely needs to get off the field somewhere in the 30-39-percent range. (photo above: Jose Luis Garza, Flickr)
Turnovers. New England's defense has a plus-20 turnover differential, which is eight turnovers better than anyone else. That's ridiculous. The Patriots don't turn the ball over offensively, and say what you want about their defense, but they're opportunistic. Sanchez and Rex Ryan stressed this week how important ball protection will be Thursday night if the Jets have a chance. (photo right: Marianne O'Leary, Flickr)Mix it up. Ryan said the only way to slow down Brady is to constantly give him different looks, because if Brady knows what's coming, forget about it. Conversely, Patriots coach Bill Belichick said he expects the Jets to show different things, as always. The Jets will be very active at linebacker in showing blitz before dropping back, and vice versa.
Communication. New England isn't running as fast of a no-huddle offense as it did earlier in the season, but it is still rolling at a pretty up-tempo pace. The Jets' defense, particularly in the secondary, needs to be right on top of its communication. The Jets match up pretty well across the board defensively, but pre-snap positioning will determine whether or not Brady gets the ball out on time.
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